尽管气电在发展过程中面临诸多困难，但具备清洁环保、节能高效、调峰能力强等优点，具有较大发展潜力，内外部环境的改善也为我国气电产业发展带来了良好机遇。

　　Although gas power faces many difficulties in its development, it has the advantages of being clean and environmentally friendly, energy-saving and efficient, and having strong peak shaving capabilities. It has great potential for development, and the improvement of internal and external environment has also brought good opportunities for the development of China's gas power industry.

　　2016年，美国天然气首次超过煤炭，成为最主要的发电来源。供应充裕、价格低廉以及清洁高效成为美国天然气发电产业近年来快速发展的重要动力。对于我国来说，尽管在国家政策支持下，气电已经成为我国天然气利用的重要领域，但在我国整个电力结构中的比例还很小，煤电和水电仍是我国发电的主要来源。2016年，我国气电装机容量7008万千瓦，仅占总发电装机容量的4.3%；气电发电量1881亿千瓦时，仅占总发电量的3.1%。

　　In 2016, natural gas surpassed coal for the first time in the United States, becoming the primary source of electricity generation. Abundant supply, low prices, and clean and efficient have become important driving forces for the rapid development of the natural gas power generation industry in the United States in recent years. For China, although gas power has become an important field for natural gas utilization with the support of national policies, its proportion in the entire power structure is still very small, and coal-fired and hydroelectric power are still the main sources of electricity generation in China. In 2016, China's installed capacity of gas and electricity was 70.08 million kilowatts, accounting for only 4.3% of the total installed capacity of power generation; The gas-fired power generation capacity is 1881 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for only 3.1% of the total power generation.

　　与美国相比，我国气电在电力产业中仅能发挥补充调解的功能。一方面，这与我国气电产业发展较晚有关；另一方面，也体现出我国气电产业仍存在一些尚未理顺的问题。一是国家还未出台气电总体战略，气电产业发展更多是在天然气利用政策以及能源发展规划中提及，国家对气电的态度也因能源市场环境变化而经常改变。二是气电经济性还不高，一些进口气源合约价格过高，天然气输配层级过多，导致发电企业利润空间下降，天然气价格管制很难反映市场供需关系。三是气电上网制度还不完善，发电成本与上网电价间缺乏联动机制，上网电价没有对气电的环保因素进行必要补偿，这与国家加快清洁能源利用的初衷是不相吻合的。

　　Compared with the United States, China's gas and electricity can only play a supplementary and mediating role in the power industry. On the one hand, this is related to the relatively late development of China's gas and electricity industry; On the other hand, it also reflects that there are still some unresolved issues in China's gas and electricity industry. One reason is that the country has not yet formulated an overall strategy for gas and electricity, and the development of the gas and electricity industry is mainly mentioned in natural gas utilization policies and energy development plans. The country's attitude towards gas and electricity also frequently changes due to changes in the energy market environment. Secondly, the economic viability of gas and electricity is not yet high. Some imported gas source contracts have excessively high prices, and there are too many levels of natural gas transmission and distribution, resulting in a decrease in profit margins for power generation companies. Natural gas price control is difficult to reflect market supply and demand relationships. The third issue is that the system for connecting gas and electricity to the grid is not yet perfect, and there is a lack of linkage mechanism between power generation costs and grid electricity prices. The grid electricity prices have not provided necessary compensation for the environmental factors of gas and electricity, which is inconsistent with the original intention of the country to accelerate the utilization of clean energy.

　　尽管在产业发展过程中面临诸多困难，但气电具备清洁环保、节能高效、调峰能力强等优点，具有较大发展潜力，内外部环境的改善也为我国气电产业发展带来了良好机遇。

　　Despite facing many difficulties in the process of industrial development, gas and electricity have the advantages of clean and environmentally friendly, energy-saving and efficient, and strong peak shaving ability, which have great development potential. The improvement of internal and external environment also brings good opportunities for the development of China's gas and electricity industry.

　　一是经济社会发展的环保要求使我国天然气发展空间更加广阔。以煤炭为主的一次能源消费结构已经给我国环境造成了极大破坏，尤其是近年来雾霾越来越严重。无论是对内提升经济发展质量，还是对外展示节能减排负责任的大国形象，我国都必须大力推行清洁发展。与煤炭、石油相比，天然气更加清洁高效;与新能源相比，天然气更具发展规模、经济性更强、利用技术更完善。《天然气发展“十三五”规划》提出到2020年天然气发电装机规模达到1.1亿千瓦以上，占发电总装机比例超过5%;《关于加快推进天然气利用的意见(征求意见稿)》提出到2020年天然气发电总装机规模达到1.5亿千瓦，天然气发电用气约1000亿立方米。与2016年相比，“十三五”期间我国天然气发电新增装机容量将达到0.4至0.8亿千瓦，增幅为57%至114%。

　　Firstly, the environmental protection requirements of economic and social development have made the development space of natural gas in China even broader. The primary energy consumption structure dominated by coal has caused great damage to China's environment, especially in recent years when smog has become increasingly severe. Whether it is improving the quality of economic development internally or showcasing a responsible national image of energy conservation and emission reduction externally, China must vigorously promote clean development. Compared to coal and oil, natural gas is cleaner and more efficient; Compared with new energy, natural gas has a larger development scale, stronger economy, and more complete utilization technology. The 13th Five Year Plan for Natural Gas Development proposes that by 2020, the installed capacity of natural gas power generation will reach over 110 million kilowatts, accounting for more than 5% of the total installed capacity of power generation; The "Opinions on Accelerating the Utilization of Natural Gas (Draft for Comments)" proposes that by 2020, the total installed capacity of natural gas power generation will reach 150 million kilowatts, and the gas consumption for natural gas power generation will be about 100 billion cubic meters. Compared with 2016, the newly installed capacity of natural gas power generation in China during the 13th Five Year Plan period will reach 40 to 80 million kilowatts, an increase of 57% to 114%.

　　二是全球天然气市场供应宽松使我国天然气进口来源更加丰富。近年来，油气勘探开发技术不断取得突破，美国“页岩气革命”使全球天然气供需格局发生深刻变化。全球油气市场已经由供应偏紧转换为供应宽松，由卖方市场转换为买方市场。由于供应充裕，2014年以来，全球天然气价格持续下降，目前已处于历史低位。今年2月，东南亚LNG基准价格约为1.73元/立方米，仅为2014年价格高点的37%。由于全球油气需求持续低迷，可以预见天然气价格近期内持续低位徘徊的可能性较大。天然气价格大幅下降将有效减少气电的原料成本劣势。供应充裕的市场格局还使一些产气大国天然气出口预期增强，这为我国丰富进口气来源，弥补国内产量和消费量缺口提供了更多选择。随着天然气供应充裕，在民用天然气能够得到充分保障后，国家可能会调整气电定位，从调峰发电逐步转向基荷发电，并将气电从可中断用户变成连续供应用户。一旦如此，不仅能够提高气电效率，也能降低发电成本，对提升气电经济性具有极大好处。

　　Secondly, the loose supply in the global natural gas market has made China's natural gas import sources more abundant. In recent years, breakthroughs have been made in oil and gas exploration and development technology, and the "shale gas revolution" in the United States has brought profound changes to the global natural gas supply and demand pattern. The global oil and gas market has shifted from tight supply to loose supply, and from a seller's market to a buyer's market. Due to abundant supply, global natural gas prices have continued to decline since 2014 and are currently at historic lows. In February of this year, the benchmark price of LNG in Southeast Asia was about 1.73 yuan/cubic meter, only 37% of the high point in 2014. Due to the continued sluggish global demand for oil and gas, it is foreseeable that natural gas prices are likely to remain low in the near future. The significant decrease in natural gas prices will effectively reduce the disadvantage of raw material costs for gas and electricity. The market pattern of abundant supply has also increased the expectations for natural gas exports in some gas producing countries, providing more choices for China to enrich its sources of imported gas and make up for the domestic production and consumption gap. With abundant natural gas supply and sufficient guarantee of civilian natural gas, the country may adjust the positioning of gas and electricity, gradually shifting from peak load power generation to base load power generation, and transforming gas and electricity from interruptible users to continuous supply users. Once this is done, it can not only improve the efficiency of gas and electricity, but also reduce the cost of power generation, which has great benefits for improving the economy of gas and electricity.

　　三是油气体制改革使我国天然气产业更加市场化。油气体制改革作为我国深化改革的重要内容，大幕已经拉开。特别是去年以来，天然气市场化改革进程加快。国家发改委和能源局先后颁布了多个文件推进改革，涉及价格体制改革、市场结构优化等多个方面，主要包括化肥用气价格市场化、加强地方天然气输配管理、油气管网设施信息公开、储气设施价格市场化等。对我国未来油气格局变化具有重要意义的油气体制改革具体方案很快就要推出。通过改革，预期天然气气源竞争将更加激烈，输配层级将有效压缩，这些都能有效降低气电成本。另外，上海和重庆石油天然气交易中心投入运行，为天然气价格市场化提供了开放的交易平台。改革提速将为我国天然气产业发展逐步扫清体制障碍，有利于形成更有效率的产业体系，天然气发电也将从中受益。

　　Thirdly, the reform of the oil and gas system has made China's natural gas industry more market-oriented. The reform of the oil and gas system, as an important part of China's deepening reform, has already begun. Especially since last year, the process of natural gas marketization reform has accelerated. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have successively issued multiple documents to promote reforms, involving price system reform, market structure optimization, and other aspects, mainly including market-oriented pricing of fertilizer gas, strengthening local natural gas transmission and distribution management, information disclosure of oil and gas pipeline network facilities, and market-oriented pricing of gas storage facilities. The specific plan for the reform of the oil and gas system, which is of great significance to the future changes in China's oil and gas landscape, will soon be launched. Through reform, it is expected that competition for natural gas sources will become more intense, and the level of transmission and distribution will be effectively compressed, which can effectively reduce the cost of gas and electricity. In addition, the Shanghai and Chongqing Oil and Gas Trading Centers have been put into operation, providing an open trading platform for the marketization of natural gas prices. The acceleration of reform will gradually clear institutional barriers for the development of China's natural gas industry, which is conducive to the formation of a more efficient industrial system, and natural gas power generation will also benefit from it.

　　四是国家明确鼓励天然气分布式能源项目的发展。《天然气发展“十三五”规划》提出鼓励发展天然气分布式能源等高效利用项目，有序发展天然气调峰电站。在基荷和分布式两种气电模式上，国家更青睐天然气分布式能源项目。一是天然气分布式能源一般采用冷、热、电三联供形式，通过气电余热制热或制冷，能大幅提高能源利用效率，且清洁低污染；二是天然气分布式能源项目一般规模较小，非常适合于商场、医院、园区等单体设施的供电、供热和制冷；三是天然气分布式能源项目发电可以采用“并网不上网”的模式，发电自用，避免了与煤电、水电上网竞争。

　　Fourthly, the country explicitly encourages the development of natural gas distributed energy projects. The 13th Five Year Plan for Natural Gas Development proposes to encourage the development of efficient utilization projects such as distributed energy for natural gas, and to develop natural gas peak shaving power stations in an orderly manner. In terms of both base load and distributed gas power modes, the country prefers natural gas distributed energy projects. Firstly, natural gas distributed energy generally adopts the form of triple supply of cooling, heating, and electricity, which can greatly improve energy utilization efficiency and be clean and low polluting by heating or cooling through gas electricity waste heat; Secondly, natural gas distributed energy projects are generally small-scale and very suitable for power supply, heating, and cooling of individual facilities such as shopping malls, hospitals, and parks; Thirdly, natural gas distributed energy projects can adopt a "grid connected without grid connected" mode for power generation, which is for self use and avoids competition with coal-fired and hydroelectric power grid connected.

　　我国推动天然气产业加快发展的决定由来已久，但近年来始终不及预期，很难认为我国天然气产业发展已经进入“黄金时期”，最本质的原因还在于市场机制不健全。而今，外部供应改善以及内部改革预期为我国天然气以及气电产业发展创造机会。期待油气体制改革能够顺应外部市场改善的历史机遇，推动我国天然气和气电产业发展进入真正的“黄金时期”。

　　The decision to accelerate the development of China's natural gas industry has a long history, but in recent years it has always fallen short of expectations. It is difficult to believe that the development of China's natural gas industry has entered a "golden age", and the most fundamental reason is that the market mechanism is not sound. Nowadays, the improvement of external supply and the expectation of internal reforms have created opportunities for the development of China's natural gas and gas power industries. We hope that the reform of the oil and gas system can adapt to the historical opportunity of external market improvement and promote the development of China's natural gas and gas power industries into a true "golden age".